Fascinating commentary from Economics News Site – Mish Shedlock

Deflation Pressures Intact

This may be one reason why government bonds refuse to sell off despite the surge in the equity market. The Wall Street Journal reports that companies like Clorox is keeping prices stable on items like its new and improved trash bags. Campbell’s Soup is cutting prices on select beverages (like V8). Burger King is selling double cheeseburgers for a buck. And, what’s this about RIM starting up a smartphone price war? According to a new holiday season poll taken by Deloitte, 74% of respondents intend to only buy items on sale or with discount coupons. The same survey indicates that holiday shopping will be flat year-over-year this year, which at one point would have been amazingly bullish but at this stage is likely a setback for the stock market. Keep in mind that Wal-Mart is now expecting 1.0%-2.0% sales growth into January 2010 whereas a year ago that expectation was in a 5.0%-7.0% range.

If there is some good news for retailers, it is that they are heading into the shopping season with fairly lean inventories — that won’t prevent but should help limit ultra-steep markdowns this year.

Martin Comments:

United States retail will very tight excepting niche markets, we are finding that understanding the patterns and behavior behind the analytic sales numbers is critical to success.

Retailers have a better grasp than ever of the retail scene through a variety of analytic tools, what they do not know, is:

WHY DO CUSTOMERS DO WHAT THEY DO AND HOW DO I MOST EFFECTIVELY INFLUENCE THAT BEHAVIOR IN MY FAVOR?

This is working very well for our retail partners,

Employ strategies and tactics that effectively alter the shopping behavior of your customers – the primary shopper, and those who shop with them and their circle of influence.

You will see what increases revenue in the store today.

Patterns caused by underlying behavior, make your sales numbers what they are, you really need help understanding the underlying thinking of your customers and market.